Month: February 2016

time to watch gold

I made a lot of money on gold’s massive run from 2008 to 2011.  Unfortunately, I unnecessarily gave much of it back because I had not yet been introduced to technical analysis.   Technical analysis of price action allows you to identify and trade along with trends.  Without this knowledge, you are essentially trading blind.  You might as well be gambling. Gold peaked in 2011, went sideways in 2012 and started heading lower in 2013.  It’s been trending down ever since, going from a high of nearly $1,900 an ounce in late 2012 to a low of  $1,045 in December of last year. There is no compelling […]

embrace a bear, in cash

The 821x system is a trend following system.  However, it’s not enough to know the direction of the trend for a trade idea.   We also have to stay in touch with the direction of the market as a whole.  We always want to have the wind at our back.  This is even more important in a down trending market where even “good” stocks gets dragged down with the “bad”.  Very few stocks make it through a bear market unscathed. So what is the evidence that the market is currently in a primary downtrend?  First off, the S&P 500 is below a DECLINING 200 day moving average.  Furthermore, the definition of a downtrend is lower […]